Keir Starmer Could Be Ousted This Year as Odds Show Favourite Replacement

Betting sites suggest that Sir Keir Starmer is still likely to lead Labour at the next general election but may not remain as leader through the campaign.

A petition with over two million signatures calling for a general election has gained traction this month, reflecting voters' growing frustration with the government.

Opposition to a tough autumn budget is mounting, with key sectors such as farmers, automotive producers, pensioners, and businesses feeling significant strain.

Starmer initially pledged not to increase taxes on "working people," but Rachel Reeves’ budget has faced criticism for doing just that. Meanwhile, with Kemi Badenoch at the helm of the Conservatives, opposition to Starmer’s leadership is growing.

Betting Odds on Starmer’s Exit

Political betting platforms have slashed the odds of Starmer stepping down in 2025, with Betfred offering 11/4 odds. This reflects a 26.7% probability of an exit next year—a surprising figure for a prime minister who secured a 170-seat majority in July.

Starmer has maintained composure, with his cabinet publicly supporting him. However, issues such as public spending and internal debates over assisted dying are causing divisions within the Labour Party.

The odds of Starmer losing his position in 2026 are 4/1, highlighting uncertainty over his long-term stability. Historically, it has proven difficult for prime ministers to regain popularity after a significant decline.

Even so, bookmakers currently place him at 4/7 to lead Labour into the next general election, suggesting a two-in-three chance of retaining his leadership through the full parliamentary term.

Could Starmer Be Forced Out?

There remains a possibility that Starmer could face ousting or a snap election he might lose. Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Liz Truss were all forced out, while Rishi Sunak faced a snap election under pressure.

While Starmer’s position is not as precarious as his predecessors’, Labour must address public concerns and stabilize its governance. Early in this parliamentary term, Labour promised efficient economic management amid scarce resources. However, demands for increased spending on public services are growing louder.

Starmer’s leadership has also alienated parts of his party’s left wing, while figures like Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage energize the political right. Despite criticism, Starmer has thus far shown resilience, with odds of 6/4 suggesting a 40% likelihood of remaining in office until 2029 or beyond.

The Road Ahead

The spring will likely bring a key test for Starmer, as falling energy prices and economic recovery could improve public sentiment. However, external factors like Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House—and the possible imposition of import tariffs—may complicate the UK’s economic prospects.

Starmer was elected on promises of stability and growth. While the latter remains a distant goal, maintaining stability will be crucial to his political survival in the coming months.